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Model based recession probability

Model based recession probability.png

30-year fixed mortgage rate

30-year fixed mortgage rate.png

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900 (Geometric)

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900 (Geometric).png

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900.png

10-year nominal total return

10-year nominal total return.png

Q ratio and P/E10 adjusted to their geometric means with the real S&P composite regression to trend

Q ratio and PE10 adjusted to their geometric means with the real S&P composite regression to trend.png

Key contributors to NBER-Dated U.S. recessions

Key contributors to NBER-Dated U.S. recessions.png

Hedge funds historically have performed well during periods of rising interest rates

Hedge funds historically have performed well during periods of rising interest rates.png

Gold can experience short rallies within a bear supercycle

Gold can experience short rallies within a bear supercycle.png

Gold vs. bonds, stocks, and home prices

Gold vs. bonds, stocks, and home prices.png

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